\u603b\u7ed3\u7cfb\u5217<\/p>\n
Python<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u6587\u7406\u6e05\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b<\/p>\n
– 04\u00b729-<\/p>\n
\u5b9c\u5206\u4eab<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e34\u5e8a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6709\u5173\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u8d77\u6765\u770b\u770b\u5427~<\/p>\n
\u6982\u8ff0<\/p>\n
Brief Introduction<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u6307\u5229\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u4f30\u8ba1\u7279\u5b9a\u4e2a\u4f53\u5f53\u524d\u60a3\u6709\u67d0\u75c5\u6216\u5c06\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u67d0\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u83b7\u76ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u53ef\u4e3a\u533b\u751f\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u53ca\u536b\u751f\u884c\u653f\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u76f4\u89c2\u3001\u7406\u6027\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5e72\u9884\/\u66b4\u9732\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0e\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1a\u9002\u5408\u7528t\u68c0\u9a8c\/\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5361\u65b9\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0cLog-rank\u68c0\u9a8c\u7b49\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u6216\u8005\u6821\u6b63\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u9002\u5408\u56de\u7b54\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\u6216\u9884\u540e\u76f8\u5173\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u5982\u4f55\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u60a3\u75c5\u6216\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u548c\u540c\u4e49\u8868\u8ff0\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08Clinical Prediction Models\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u89c4\u5219\uff08Clinical prediction rules\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08Risk prediction models\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08Predictive models\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\uff08Risk scores\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4f9d\u636e\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\uff08Diagnostic models\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u75c7\u72b6\u548c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8bca\u65ad\u5f53\u524d\u60a3\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u591a\u89c1\u4e8e\u6a2a\u65ad\u9762\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2461 \u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\uff08Prognostic models\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0b\uff08\u5065\u5eb7\u6216\u60a3\u75c5\uff09\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u67d0\u7ed3\u5c40\uff08\u53d1\u75c5\u3001\u590d\u53d1\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4f24\u6b8b\u53ca\u5e76\u53d1\u75c7\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u591a\u89c1\u4e8e\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6784\u6210\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5c40\uff1b\u2461 \u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5c40\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u60a3\u75c5\uff1b\u53d1\u75c5\uff1b\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u590d\u53d1\uff1b\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1b\u4f24\u6b8b\u53ca\u5e76\u53d1\u75c7\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5c40\u591a\u4e3a\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u7ed3\u5c40\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u800c\u975e\u76f8\u5bf9\u5371\u9669\u5ea6\uff08RR\uff09\u3001\u6bd4\u503c\u6bd4\uff08OR\uff09\u6216\u8005\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\uff08HR\uff09\u7b49\u76f8\u5bf9\u6548\u5e94\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2461 \u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\uff08\u5982\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6027\u522b\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u75be\u75c5\u53f2\uff1b\u7528\u836f\u53f2\uff1b\u4f53\u683c\u68c0\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u5f71\u50cf\uff1b\u7535\u751f\u7406\uff1b\u8840\u6837\u5c3f\u6837\u68c0\u67e5\uff1b\u75c5\u7406\u68c0\u67e5\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u75be\u75c5\u9636\u6bb5\u4e0e\u7279\u5f81\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u7ec4\u5b66\u6307\u6807\uff08\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u5b66\u3001\u86cb\u767d\u7ec4\u5b66\u3001\u4ee3\u8c22\u7ec4\u5b66\u3001\u8f6c\u5f55\u7ec4\u5b66\u53ca\u836f\u7269\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u5b66\u7b49\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u53ca\u5176\u540c\u4e49\u8bcd\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\uff08Predictors\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u9884\u540e\u56e0\u7d20\uff08Prognosticfactors\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff08Determinants\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c<\/p>\n
\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u7b56\u7565\u201d\uff08PROGRESS\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u7ec4\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u57fa\u672c\u9884\u540e\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5373\u81ea\u7136\u72b6\u6001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f53\u524d\u533b\u7597\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0b\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2461 \u9884\u540e\u56e0\u7d20\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5373\u4e0e\u9884\u540e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2462 \u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5373\u5efa\u7acb\u3001\u9a8c\u8bc1\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4f53\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u5c40\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2463 \u5206\u5c42\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5373\u5229\u7528\u9884\u540e\u4fe1\u606f\u8c03\u6574\u4e2a\u4f53\u6216\u662f\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7279\u5f81\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u300a\u4e2a\u4f53\u9884\u540e\u4e0e\u8bca\u65ad\u7684\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u900f\u660e\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08TRIPOD\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u7ec4\u5219\u5c06\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u4e3a\u4e94\u5927\u7c7b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u5bfb\u627e\u9884\u540e\u4e0e\u8bca\u65ad\u56e0\u5b50\u7814\u7a76\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2461 \u65e0\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2462 \u6709\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2463 \u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2464 \u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u6ce8\uff1a<\/p>\n
a) \u5bfb\u627e\u9884\u540e\u4e0e\u8bca\u65ad\u56e0\u5b50\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u65e8\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u8bca\u65ad\u6216\u662f\u9884\u540e\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e3a\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u5efa\u7acb\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/p>\n
b) \u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u65e8\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e94\u7528\u4e0e\u4e0d\u5e94\u7528\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u533b\u751f\u548c\u60a3\u8005\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u53ca\u60a3\u8005\u5065\u5eb7\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e0a\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5e94\u9075\u5faa\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e72\u9884\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5355\u4e2a\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n
c) \u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u6700\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7c7b\u578b\u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u4e00\u7ea7\u9884\u9632\uff1a\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u60a3\u8005\u548c\u533b\u751f\u63d0\u4f9b\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u60a3\u6709\u67d0\u75c5\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u98ce\u9669\u503c\uff08\u6982\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u4e3a\u5065\u5eb7\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u76f4\u89c2\u3001\u6709\u529b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u798f\u660e\u7ff0\u5fc3\u810f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u798f\u660e\u7ff0\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u75c5\u5371\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\u660e\u786e\u4e86\u964d\u4f4e\u8840\u8102\u3001\u8840\u538b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u9632\u5fc3\u808c\u6897\u6b7b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2461\u4e8c\u7ea7\u9884\u9632\uff1a\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u5e38\u501f\u52a9\u65e0\u521b\u7684\u3001\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6613\u91c7\u96c6\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u9ad8\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u548c\u7279\u5f02\u5ea6\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u8df5\u884c<\/p>\n
\u201c\u65e9\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u65e9\u8bca\u65ad\uff0c\u65e9\u6cbb\u7597\u201d\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u536b\u751f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2462\u4e09\u7ea7\u9884\u9632\uff1a\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u5bf9\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u590d\u53d1\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4f24\u6b8b\u53ca\u53d1\u751f\u5e76\u53d1\u75c7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ed9\u51fa\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u6307\u5bfc\u5bf9\u75c7\u6cbb\u7597\u548c\u5eb7\u590d\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u75be\u75c5\u590d\u53d1\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u75c5\u6b7b\u7387\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4f24\u6b8b\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u529f\u80fd\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u5b58\u8d28\u91cf\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u8def<\/p>\n
Brief Introduction<\/p>\n
\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u5230\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6d41\u7a0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u786e\u7acb\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u540c\u95ee\u9898\u9700\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7c7b\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u8bca\u65ad\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u7ed3\u5c40\u5747\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u70b9\u6216\u5f88\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u91c7\u7528\u6a2a\u65ad\u9762\u7814\u7a76\u6570\u636e\u6784\u5efa\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u9700\u8981\u6709\u201c\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u201d\u6765\u5355\u72ec\u8bca\u65ad\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u4e14\u201c\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u201d\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u201c\u76f2\u6cd5\u201d\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u201d\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0d\u80fd\u501f\u52a9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8bca\u65ad\u8bc4\u4f30\u504f\u501a\uff08Diagnostic review bias\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u9884\u540e\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u7ed3\u5c40\u6709\u7eb5\u5411\u65f6\u95f4\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u91c7\u7528\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u6570\u636e\u62df\u5408\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5c31\u662f\u7eb5\u5411\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e14\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u5e0c\u671b\u83b7\u5f97\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u8f6c\u5f52\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7c7b\u578b\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u53ef\u89c6\u4e3a\u5165\u9009\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u683c\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u961f\u5217\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5916\u63a8\u6027\u53d7\u9650;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
d\uff09\u56de\u987e\u6027\u7684\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u975e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u6536\u96c6\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u606f\u504f\u501a\uff0c\u4e0d\u63a8\u8350\u7528\u5176\u5efa\u7acb\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
e\uff09\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u5bf9\u7167\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u5efa\u7acb\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u527f\u5f0f\u75c5\u4f8b\u5bf9\u7167\u6216\u8005\u75c5\u4f8b\u961f\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u7f55\u89c1\u7ed3\u5c40\u6216\u8005\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u6d4b\u91cf\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u65b9\u6848;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
f\uff09\u75be\u75c5\u6ce8\u518c\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u548c\u7535\u5b50\u75c5\u5386\u8d44\u6599\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2461 \u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u8d28\u63a7\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5168\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5219\u5e94\u4ece\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u64cd\u4f5c\u624b\u518c\u3001\u75c5\u4f8b\u62a5\u544a\u8868\u3001\u4f26\u7406\u6279\u4ef6\u7b49\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u636e\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u8d28\u63a7\uff1b<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u56de\u987e\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u786e\u5b9a\u7528\u4e8e\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff1b<\/p>\n
\u2462 \u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u4e0e\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5e94\u660e\u786e\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u3001\u5df2\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\uff1b<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u786e\u5b9a\u5165\u9009\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u539f\u5219\u53ca\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b<\/p>\n
C\uff09\u786e\u5b9a\u5165\u9009\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n
a) \u9002\u5408\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684Logistic\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b;<\/p>\n
b) \u9002\u5408\u751f\u5b58\u6570\u636e\u7684Cox\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b;<\/p>\n
c) \u9002\u5408\u9891\u6570\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u6cca\u677e\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
D\uff09\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4f30\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\uff1b<\/p>\n
E\uff09\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6027\u80fd\uff1a<\/p>\n
a) \u533a\u5206\u5ea6\uff08Discrimination\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b) \u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\uff08Calibration\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2463 \u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5185\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6 \u2192 \u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\uff08Reproducibility\uff09<\/p>\n
a) \u5212\u5206\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b) \u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff08Cross-validation\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c) Bootstrap\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5ea6 \u2192 \u666e\u904d\u6027\uff08Generalizability\uff09<\/p>\n
\u7528\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u672c\u8eab\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/p>\n
\uff08\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u3001\u5730\u7406\u4e0a\u72ec\u7acb\u6216\u5b8c\u5168\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff09<\/p>\n
\u2464 \u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u8bc4\u5206-\u6982\u7387\u5bf9\u7167\u8868;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u4f9d\u636e\u5f97\u5206\u9ad8\u4f4e\u5212\u5206\u9ad8\u5371\u4f4e\u5371\u4eba\u7fa4;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09\u5217\u7ebf\u56fe\uff08Nomogram\uff09;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
d\uff09\u7f51\u9875\u5de5\u5177\u6216\u8005\u624b\u673aAPP<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
e\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u300a\u4e2a\u4f53\u9884\u540e\u4e0e\u8bca\u65ad\u7684\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u900f\u660e\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08TRIPOD\uff09\u4ece\u6807\u9898\u548c\u6458\u8981\u3001\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5b83\u4e03\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e8622\u6761\u68c0\u67e5\u6761\u76ee\uff0c\u4ee5\u89c4\u8303\u62a5\u544a\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7814\u7a76\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ecehttp:\/\/www.\/\u83b7\u53d6\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\u5e94\u7528\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u533b\u751f\/\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6216\u6210\u672c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9700\u8981\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u8bbe\u8ba1\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u4e3a\u6574\u7fa4\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2465 \u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u826f\u597d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u75be\u75c5\u5371\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u672a\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u5371\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u6cbb\u7597\u63aa\u65bd\u53ca\u6cbb\u7597\u80cc\u666f\u7b49\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u6f02\u79fb\uff08Calibration drift\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fdb\u5316\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb<\/p>\n
Brief Introduction<\/p>\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8be6\u7ec6\u62c6\u89e3\u4e00\u4e0b\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff1a\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u4e0e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u4e0b\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u5904\u7406\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5904\u7406\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\uff1a<\/p>\n
a) \u76f4\u63a5\u5254\u9664<\/p>\n
\u7f3a\u70b9\uff1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u5165\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u501a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u606f\u4e22\u5931\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u628a\u63e1\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b) \u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u63d2\u8865<\/p>\n
\u591a\u91cd\u63d2\u8865\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f25\u8865\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u63d2\u8865\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u60a3\u8005\u672a\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u53bb\u4f30\u8ba1\u5176\u7f3a\u5931\u53d8\u91cf\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u53d8\u91cf\u7c7b\u522b\u5904\u7406\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7c7b\u7684\u9891\u6570\u6216\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8fc7\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5c06\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u7c7b\u5408\u5e76\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u9700\u9996\u5148\u8003\u5bdf\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e25\u91cd\u5de6\u504f\u6216\u53f3\u504f\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u8f6c\u6362\u4f7f\u53d8\u91cf\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u5b9a\u4e3a\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u501f\u52a9\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7acb\u65b9\u6837\u6761\uff08Restricted Cubic Splines\uff0cRCS\uff09\u51fd\u6570\u6216\u8005\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\uff08Fractional Polynomials\uff0cFPs\uff09\u8003\u5bdf\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u62df\u5408\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u4e3a\u5408\u9002\uff0c\u5982J\u578b\u6216U\u578b\u66f2\u7ebf\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
d\uff09\u4e5f\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5c06\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u5207\u5272\u540e\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5207\u5272\u540e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6548\u80fd\u4e22\u5931\u5c11\uff0c\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u4fbf\u6027\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u540e\u671f\u5c06\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u5411\u5927\u4f17\u5e94\u7528\u65f6\u662f\u53ef\u53d6\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u521d\u671f\u4e0d\u63a8\u8350\u91c7\u7528\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
e\uff09\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u901a\u5e38\u4e3a1\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\uff08\u59821\u5c81\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5176\u5b83\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u6bd4\u59821\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u6216\u800510\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\uff08\u598210\u5c81\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2461 \u7b5b\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u57fa\u4e8e\u6587\u732e\u62a5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5efa\u7acb\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u524d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u68c0\u7d22\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u6536\u96c6\u6574\u7406\u5df2\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5907\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u5168\u6a21\u578b\u7b56\u7565<\/p>\n
\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u5b50\u7eb3\u5165\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u8fdb\u884c\u7b5b\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f18\u70b9\uff1a\u5168\u6a21\u578b\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u6a21\u578b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62df\u5408\u4ee5\u53ca\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u7b5b\u9009\u504f\u501a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f3a\u70b9\uff1a\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5168\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u597d\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3001\u53d8\u91cf\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u53ca\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u7b49\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u6700\u7ec8\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u53d8\u91cf\u6e05\u5355\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e14\u7eb3\u5165\u6240\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u7b5b\u9009\u6a21\u578b\u7b56\u7565<\/p>\n
\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u501f\u52a9\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u4f30\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/p>\n
\u51c6\u5219\uff1a\u5e38\u6839\u636eP\u503c\uff0cAIC\u6216BIC\u503c\u7b49\u6765\u7b5b\u9009\u53d8\u91cf\u3002P\uff1c0.05\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0cP\uff1c0.1\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u754c\u503c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u5165\u5e76\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002AIC\u6216BIC\u662f\u6a21\u62df\u62df\u5408\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u503c\u8d8a\u4f4e\u8bf4\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u8d8a\u597d[10]<\/p>\n
\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a\u5411\u540e\u6cd5\u3001\u5411\u524d\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u9010\u6b65\u6cd5\u3002\u5411\u540e\u6cd5\u662f\u4ece\u5168\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u5254\u9664\u5197\u4f59\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5254\u9664\u5219\u4e0d\u518d\u7eb3\u5165\uff1b\u5411\u524d\u6cd5\u5219\u662f\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u53d8\u91cf\u9010\u4e2a\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7eb3\u5165\u5219\u4e0d\u518d\u5254\u9664\uff1b\u9010\u6b65\u6cd5\u5219\u662f\u5411\u524d\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5411\u540e\u6cd5\u7684\u7efc\u5408\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u65b0\u53d8\u91cf\u7eb3\u5165\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8bc4\u4f30\u5df2\u7eb3\u5165\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u5411\u540e\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u4e3a\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u9996\u5148\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u5168\u6a21\u578b\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff1a\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5982LASSO\u56de\u5f52\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53d7\u5230\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ec8\u6781\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d8\u91cf\u7b5b\u9009\u7684\u51c6\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
C\uff09\u57fa\u4e8e\u533b\u5b66\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u7b5b\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u867d\u7136\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u4efb\u4f55\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u7b5b\u9009\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u7ed3\u5408\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e13\u4e1a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u6307\u6807\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u96be\u6613\u5ea6\u3001\u6d4b\u91cf\u6210\u672c\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u96be\u6613\u5ea6\u7b49\u4e5f\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5728\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2462 \u62df\u5408\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u5212\u5206\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u6570\u636e\u62df\u5408\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u6570\u636e\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u968f\u673a\u62c6\u5206\u6837\u672c\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff08Cross-validation\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09Bootstrap\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u9009\u62e9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9700\u8003\u8651\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u7c7b\u578b\u53ca\u6570\u636e<\/p>\n
\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n
a\uff09Logistic\u56de\u5f52<\/p>\n
\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u7ed3\u5c40\uff1b\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09Cox\u56de\u5f52<\/p>\n
\u4e8b\u4ef6-\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u91cf\uff1b\u957f\u671f\u7684\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e38\u7528Cox\u56de\u5f52\u62df\u5408<\/p>\n
c\uff09\u6cca\u677e\u56de\u5f52<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6b21\u6570\uff08\u5982\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u54ee\u5598\u53d1\u4f5c\u6b21\u6570\u3001\u5fc3\u8870\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u4f4f\u9662\u6b21\u6570\u7b49\uff09<\/p>\n
d\uff09\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52<\/p>\n
\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e3a\u4e8e\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf<\/p>\n
e\uff09\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u3001\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797\u3001\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
C\uff09\u7cfb\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\uff1a\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u4f30\u8ba1\u6cd5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09Logistic\u548cCox\u56de\u5f52\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\uff08ML\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\u6cd5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09\u65b0\u578b\u4f30\u7b97\u6280\u672f\uff1ashrinkage\u6280\u672f\u3001\u60e9\u7f5a\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2463 \u8bc4\u4f30\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u4ee5\u8003\u5bdf\u5176\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u53ca\u5916\u63a8\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u5185\u90e8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u540c\u6e90\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u65f6\uff0c\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u968f\u673a\u62c6\u5206\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09Bootstrap\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\uff08\u6700\u63a8\u8350\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u4e0d\u540c\u6e90\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u65f6\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u53ef\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u57df\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u53ca\u5730\u57df\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u603b\u7ed3\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6307\u6807\u89c1\u4e0b\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7<\/p>\n
Brief Introduction<\/p>\n
\u5728\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2460 \u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u7684\uff1a\u68c0\u9a8c\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\uff08Reproducibility\uff09\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62df\u5408\uff08Over-fitting\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u968f\u673a\u62c6\u5206\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u968f\u673a\u5206\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e24\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a1:1\u62162:1\u3002\u4ee52:1\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u4ece\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d62\/3\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\uff0c\u5269\u4f591\/3\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u8fd9\u4e00\u62c6\u5206\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ec5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u5f00\u53d1\u6570\u636e\u6781\u5927\u7684\u6d6a\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n
B\uff09\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u53c8\u79f0K\u6298\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u662f\u968f\u673a\u62c6\u5206\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u4ee5K=10\u768410\u6298\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a\u5c06\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u968f\u673a\u5206\u4e3a10\u4efd\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u5229\u7528\u5176\u4e2d9\u4efd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\uff0c\u5269\u4f591\u4efd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u590d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f46\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u6548\u7387\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9010\u6e10\u88abBootstrap\u65b9\u6cd5\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n
C\uff09Bootstrap\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u662f\u6307\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u653e\u56de\u62bd\u6837\uff0c\u6784\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u540c\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u5927\u5c0f\u7684Bootstrap\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6b64\u6837\u672c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\uff0c\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\u91cd\u590d\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0bn\u6b21\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
Bootstrap\u65b9\u6cd5\u6839\u636e\u6280\u672f\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u53c8\u7ec6\u5206\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u7b80\u5355Bootstrap\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u6700\u4e3a\u76f4\u89c2\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06n\u6b21\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u5e73\u5747\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8868\u73b0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09\u52a0\u5f3aBootstrap\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u6700\u4e3a\u5e38\u7528\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\uff08optimism\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u8c03\u6574\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff090.632\u6cd5<\/p>\n
\u7528\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7528\u5230Bootstrap\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\u4e2d\u672a\u88ab\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6837\u672c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
D\uff09\u201c\u5185\u90e8-\u5916\u90e8\u201d\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u201c\u5185\u90e8-\u5916\u90e8\u201d\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u62c6\u5206\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5206\u7ec4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u5206\u7ec4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u591a\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6570\u636e\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u6bcf\u6b21\u62bd\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\uff0c\u5269\u4f59\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u6b64\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f7f\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u66fe\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u96c6\u3002\u6700\u540e\u5c06\u6bcf\u6b21\u201c\u5185\u90e8-\u5916\u90e8\u201d\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u6c47\u603b\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u4f18\u52bf\uff1a\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u5168\u90e8\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u4ecd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u975e\u968f\u673a\u62c6\u5206\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u2461 \u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u7684\uff1a\u8003\u5bdf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u79fb\u690d\u6027\uff08Transportability\uff09\u548c\u53ef\u6cdb\u5316\u6027\uff08Generalizability\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u65f6\u6bb5\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff08Temporal validation\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5229\u7528\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u6765\u6e90\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u662f\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7ee7\u7eed\u6536\u96c6\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u5b8c\u6210\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5916\u90e8\u65f6\u6bb5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u7a7a\u95f4\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff08Geographical validation\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2d\u5fc3\u751a\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u961f\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u7528\u4e0e\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7eb3\u5165\/\u6392\u9664\u6807\u51c6\u6216\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u7a7a\u95f4\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6bd4\u65f6\u6bb5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u8f6c\u79fb\u6027\u548c\u6cdb\u5316\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
C\uff09\u9886\u57df\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff08Domain validation\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u6307\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u65f6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u533b\u9662\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5728\u9886\u57df\u9a8c\u8bc1\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u793e\u533a\u5c45\u6c11\u6570\u636e\u68c0\u9a8c\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u51c6\u5219\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u5f85\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u961f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u5e76\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u8981\u6c42\u5f85\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8d4b\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u6743\u91cd\uff08\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8eCox\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5206\u7ec4\u751f\u5b58\u66f2\u7ebf\u6216\u57fa\u7840\u751f\u5b58\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9700\u8981\u4e25\u683c\u6309\u7167\u5f85\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\uff08\u5373\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u5b50\u4e58\u4ee5\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u540e\u76f8\u52a0\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff09\u6216\u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6b65\u9aa4\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5f97\u5bf9\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u516c\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u6821\u51c6\u659c\u7387\uff08calibration slope\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\u4f5c\u4e3a\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u91cd\u65b0\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u5c31\u662f\u6821\u51c6\u659c\u7387\uff08calibration slope\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u5927\u5c0f\uff1a\u82e5\u6821\u51c6\u659c\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e1\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u4e5f\u9884\u793a\u7740\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\uff08\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u8fc7\u4f4e\uff0c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff09\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u7684\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u65f6\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
B\uff09\u6821\u51c6\u622a\u8ddd\uff08calibration-in-the-large\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u82e5\u662fLogistic\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u6821\u51c6\u622a\u8ddd\uff08calibration-in-the-large\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u7528\u6765\u6bd4\u8f83\u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u82e5\u6821\u51c6\u622a\u8ddd\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u961f\u5217\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u961f\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
C\uff09C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u533a\u5206\u5ea6C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u53ea\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u6392\u5e8f\u8fd9\u4e00\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u6b64\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u7684C\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e2d\u7684C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
D\uff09Brier\u5f97\u5206\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u9a8c\u8bc1\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u503c\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97Brier\u5f97\u5206\uff0c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u539f\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u82e5\u662f\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4fe1\u606f\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6307\u6807\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u5e38\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u66f4\u4e3a\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n
\u2462 \u8bc4\u4ef7\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5728\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u65e0\u8bba \u662f\u5185\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8fd8\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5747\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6307\u6807\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0 \u3002\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6307\u6807\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u79cd\uff1a<\/p>\n
A\uff09\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\uff08Discrimination\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u6307\u6a21\u578b\u533a\u5206\u53d1\u751f\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0e\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c06\u60a3\u8005\u6309\u7167\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u5e8f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u60a3\u6709\u5f85\u8bca\u65ad\u7684\u75be\u75c5\uff08\u8bca\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u6216\u53d1\u751f\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u9884\u540e\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff08Concordance statistics\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3aC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u5206\u9ad8\u4e8e\u540e\u8005\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\uff1a0~1\uff0cC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd11\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u8d8a\u597d\uff0cC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7b49\u4e8e0.5\u65f6\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0cC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u5c0f\u4e8e0.5\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n
AUC\uff1a\u82e5\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\uff0cC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u4e0eROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0b\u9762\u79ef\uff08AUC\uff09\u76f8\u540c\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
b\uff09Harrell\u2019s C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/p>\n
\u82e5\u7ec8\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6-\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u662fHarrell\u63d0\u51fa\u7684Harrell\u2019s C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u5220\u5931\u8f83\u591a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cHarrell\u2019s C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\uff1b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
c\uff09Uno\u2019s C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/p>\n
Uno\u7b49\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373Uno\u2019s C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u5220\u5931\u6570\u636e\u8f83\u591a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5f97\u5230\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
d\uff09\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56C\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/p>\n
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B\uff09\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\uff08Calibration\uff09<\/p>\n
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\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u56fe<\/p>\n
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b\uff09Hosmer-Lemeshow\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\u68c0\u9a8c<\/p>\n
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c\uff09Brier\u5f97\u5206<\/p>\n
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Brier\u5f97\u5206\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a0~0.25\uff0cBrier\u5f97\u5206\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd10\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u8d8a\u597d\uff0cBrier\u5f97\u5206\u7b49\u4e8e0.25\u65f6\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
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C\uff09\u6821\u51c6\u5ea6\u548c\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u7684\u8054\u7cfb<\/p>\n
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D\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u589e\u91cf\u503c\uff08incremental value\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n
a\uff09\u4f3c\u7136\u51fd\u6570\uff1a<\/p>\n
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b\uff09\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u6548\u5e94\u503c<\/p>\n
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\u4e00\u4e2aOR\u503c\u4e3a2\u5e76\u4e14\u4e24\u7ec4\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a50:50\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4OR\u503c\u4e3a10\u4f46\u662f\u4e24\u7ec4\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a1:99\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6548\u5e94\u91cf\u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u6bcf\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u500d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f53\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u5f88\u5c0f\u6216\u53d6\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u8f83\u5e7f\u65f6\uff0c\u6548\u5e94\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u663e\u5f97\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002\u4ee5\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee5\u201c\u5398\u7c73\u201d\u4e3a\u8ba1\u91cf\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u8eab\u9ad8\u7684OR\u662f1.01\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f53\u4ee5\u201c\u7c73\u201d\u4e3a\u8ba1\u91cf\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0cOR\u5c06\u53d8\u4e3a2.70\uff081.01\u7684100\u6b21\u65b9\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u6839\u636e\u6548\u5e94\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u4f7f\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u503c\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
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c\uff09ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u548cC\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9608\u503c\u4e0a\u7684\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u548c\u7279\u5f02\u6027\u3002ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0b\u9762\u79ef\uff08AUC\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3ac\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e00\u4f4d\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f4d\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u65f6\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8005\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5f53AUC\u4e3a0.5\u65f6\u4ee3\u8868<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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d\uff09\u91cd\u5206\u7c7b\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
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\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u5c42\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5206\u7c7b\u51c0\u91cd\u5206\u7c7b\u6307\u6570\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u6709\u4e34\u5e8a\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u9608\u503c\u5c06\u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u5c42\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5206\u7c7bNRI\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e8e\u539f\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u4f7f\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u5c42\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u5173\u4e34\u5e8a\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5206\u7c7bNRI\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b]\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
N R I = N R I ( + ) + N R I ( – ) <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
= [ P ( u p | D = 1 ) -P(down|D=1)]+[P(down|D=0)-P(up|D= 0)]<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
=[\u5411\u4e0a\u8f6c\u79fb\u6570\/\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6570-\u5411\u4e0b\u8f6c\u79fb\u6570\/\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6570]+[\u5411\u4e0b\u8f6c\u79fb\u6570\/\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6570-\u5411\u4e0a\u8f6c\u79fb\u6570\/\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6570]<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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\u5176\u4e2dNRI(+)\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u5373\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u4e2d\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8bP(up|D=1)\u51cf\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u4e2d\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8bP(down|D=1)\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u5982\u679cNRI(+)\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u6b63\uff0c\u5219\u8868\u660e\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u60a3\u8005\u88ab\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u66f4\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u7c7b\u4e3a\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\uff0cNRI(-)\u4e5f\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u5373\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u4e2d\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8bP(down|D=0)\u51cf\u53bb\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u4e2d\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8bP(up|D=0)\uff0c<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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\u5728\u4f7f\u7528NRI\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u548c\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\uff0c\u5e94\u59cb\u7ec8\u5206\u522b\u62a5\u544aNRI\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5373NRI(+)\u548cNRI(-)\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u9700\u8981\u6765\u5206\u522b\u89e3\u8bfb\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u548c\u975e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u6216\u6839\u636e\u91cd\u8981\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5bf9\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u8fde\u7eed\u51c0\u91cd\u5206\u7c7b\u6539\u8fdb\u6307\u6570\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cNRI(>0)\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u719f\u6089\u7684\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8ba1\u6570\u5224\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0b\u9762\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5224\u522b\u6539\u8fdb\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u5224\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u505a\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u51c0\u91cd\u5206\u7c7b\u6539\u8fdb\u6307\u6570\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u7248\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u7efc\u5408\u5224\u522b\u6539\u8fdb\u6307\u6570\uff08IDI\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u7c7b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7efc\u5408\u6240\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e0e\u8fde\u7eedNRI\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0cIDI\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f9d\u636e\u662f\u5426\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd8\u8ba1\u7b97\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u964d\u4f4e\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
IDI\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u6307\u6807\u6709\u7740\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b83\u7b49\u4e8e\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u659c\u7387\uff08\u53c8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3aYates\u659c\u7387\uff09\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7b49\u4e8e\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684Brier\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u5dee\u503c\u3002\u4e0eNRI\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cIDI\u7684\u503c\u901a\u5e38\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u96be\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u5c06IDI\u9664\u4ee5\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u659c\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u533a\u5206\u5ea6\u659c\u7387\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
D\uff09\u51b3\u7b56\u66f2\u7ebf\u5206\u6790\uff08Decision-curve analysis\uff09<\/p>\n
\u7f18\u7531\uff1a\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u5de5\u4f5c\u7279\u5f81\u66f2\u7ebf( receiver operator characteristic curve\uff0cROC\u66f2\u7ebf) \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u88ab\u5e7f\u5927\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u3002ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u5229\u7528\u771f\u9633\u6027\u7387\u548c\u5047\u9634\u6027\u7387\u4f5c\u56fe\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u548c\u7279\u5f02\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u8bca\u65ad\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u6700 \u4f73 \u4e34 \u754c \u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0b\u9762\u79ef(area under curve\uff0cAUC) \u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u3002\u4f46ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u552f\u4e00\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e34\u5e8a\u6a21\u578b\u6548\u7528\u5224\u65ad\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u800c\u51b3\u7b56\u66f2\u7ebf\u5206\u6790(decision curve analysis\uff0cDCA) \u6070\u597d\u5f25\u8865\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7f3a\u9677\u3002DCA \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u4f53\u73b0\u4e34\u5e8a\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u5e76\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n
DCA \u7684\u539f\u5219\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5373\u5047\u9633\u6027\u548c\u5047\u9634\u6027( \u5982\u6f0f\u8bca\u764c\u75c7) \u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u635f\u5931\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u9608\u6982\u7387\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5047\u5b9a\u60a3\u764c\u75c7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5927\u4e8e 20% \u65f6\u5e94\u9009\u62e9\u6d3b\u68c0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f53\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u60a3\u764c\u75c7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e 20% \u65f6\uff0c\u6f0f\u8bca\u764c\u75c7\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u635f\u5931\u503c\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u6d3b\u68c0\u635f\u5931\u503c\u7684\u56db\u500d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9608\u6982\u7387\u7684\u503c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u635f\u5931\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u9608\u6982\u7387\u7684\u503c\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u7ed3\u5c40\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e34\u5e8a\u51c0\u6548\u76ca\u51fd\u6570\u5bf9\u771f\u9633\u6027\u548c\u5047\u9633\u6027\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u7ed3\u679c\u5efa\u6a21:<\/p>\n
\u603b\u7ed3\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u76844\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6307\u6807\u6982\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u6587\u641e\u5b9a\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u603b\u7ed3<\/p>\n
Brief Introduction<\/p>\n
\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/p>\n
[1]\u9648\u4e50\u9676,\u6768\u571f\u4fdd,\u9648\u6a59,\u5f20\u9759\u822a,\u8d3a\u5fd7\u654f,\u90d1\u8d5e,\u79e6\u5bb6\u78a7.\u51b3\u7b56\u66f2\u7ebf\u5206\u6790\u5728R\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u536b\u751f\u7edf\u8ba1,2018,35(06):955-957+960.<\/p>\n
[2]\u8c37\u9e3f\u79cb,\u5468\u652f\u745e,\u7ae0\u4ef2\u6052,\u5468\u6743.\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b:\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\u53ca\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u8def[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u5faa\u8bc1\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u533b\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7,2018,10(12):1454-1456+1462.<\/p>\n
[3]\u8c37\u9e3f\u79cb,\u738b\u4fca\u5cf0,\u7ae0\u4ef2\u6052,\u5468\u652f\u745e.\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b:\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u5faa\u8bc1\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u533b\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7,2019,11(01):14-16+23.<\/p>\n
[4]\u738b\u4fca\u5cf0,\u7ae0\u4ef2\u6052,\u5468\u652f\u745e,\u8c37\u9e3f\u79cb.\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b:\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u5faa\u8bc1\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u533b\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7,2019,11(02):141-144.<\/p>\n
[5]\u6587\u73b2\u5b50,\u738b\u4fca\u5cf0,\u8c37\u9e3f\u79cb.\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u589e\u91cf\u503c[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u5faa\u8bc1\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u533b\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7,2020,12(06):655-659.<\/p>\n
[6]Steyerberg EW, Vergouwe Y. Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation. Eur Heart J. 2014 Aug 1;35(29):1925-31. doi: 10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehu207. Epub 2014 Jun 4. PMID: 24898551; PMCID: PMC4155437.<\/p>\n
[7]\u8d3e\u7389\u9f99,\u5468\u6d01,\u9648\u9896,\u6c88\u6bc5.\u4e34\u5e8a\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4f53\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u536b\u751f\u7edf\u8ba1,2019,36(05):728-730+734.<\/p>\n
[8]\u8d75\u7487,\u970d\u5efa\u5e73,\u5c1a\u6e38.\u7532\u72b6\u817a\u672f\u540e\u6076\u5fc3\u5455\u5410\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u53ca\u5217\u7ebf\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u8001\u5e74\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7,2022,42(05):1109-1112.<\/p>\n
\u73b0\u5728\uff1a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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